If May 9, 2022 will be a Monday like any other day for many, on that day Vladimir Putin will play a big role. President Emmanuel Macron, who was a guest of RTL, on April 8, explained that “for Russia, May 9 is a national holiday, an important military meeting, and it is almost certain that May 9, for President Putin, should be a day of victory” over Ukraine. . Called Victory Day, this date since 1945 celebrates the surrender of Nazi Germany to the Allied forces, including the Soviet Union.
Note that if this date is not the same for us, it is because it is the second signature of the German act of surrender made in Berlin (at Stalin’s request) on May 8 at 11:01 pm (European time), i.e. May 9, 1945 at 1:01 am to Moscow. He explains to “Vladimir Putin” to announce something on that day 20 minutes General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the United Nations. But while all international experts agree on this fact, speculation about what exactly the Russian government will do varies.
Scenario 1: Integration of Donbass in Russia
On Monday, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry considered that Moscow could use the May 9 celebrations to “raise the question” of the integration of the breakaway and pro-Russian “republics” of Donbas into the Russian Federation. Diagnostics backed by information deemed “highly reliable” by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). According to her, Russia intends to organize referendums “in about mid-May” in order to “try to annex” the pro-Russian separatist “republics” of Donetsk and Lugansk.
On the other hand, a quick capture of Donbass seems unlikely, especially since the trip of the Chief of Staff of the Russian Army to the north of Donbass a few days ago. “He was able to assess the chances of victory in the Donbass by May 9 and it seems that it is quite improbable, as General Dominic Trincwand notes. The army is advancing with great difficulty, even the Ukrainian counter-attacks are working well.”
Scenario 2: Complete acquisition of Mariupol
Having failed to get time to seize Donbass by May 9, Vladimir Putin could take full control of Mariupol. In any case, this is what recent events indicate. The Azov regiment hiding underground at the Azovstal plant, on Tuesday evening, announced that the Russian army launched an attack on these huge steel plants. “Mariupol is the most immediately achievable,” General Dominic Trincwand admits.
The capture of Mariupol is a scenario that fits with information from Ukrainian intelligence that Russia is preparing for a military parade in the besieged coastal city on May 9. Mariupol, located in southeastern Ukraine, will “become a center for celebrations,” and “the city’s main roads are urgently being cleaned, removing debris and dead bodies, as well as unexploded ordnance,” they said in a statement released on Wednesday.
Third scenario: Vladimir Putin wages an all-out war
Since starting his invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has never talked about war. Only “special military operation” and disarmament. But things can change. “I think Vladimir Putin will try to get out of his own operation,” said British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, speaking on London radio LBC. “Vladimir Putin paved the way for saying, ‘Look, now it’s a war against the Nazis, I need more people.'” I need more fuel for Russian cannons. The latter adds that he would not be surprised if this announcement occurred on May 9.
Scenario IV: Fighting extends to Moldova
Over the past few days, international experts have been concerned about a possible expansion of the fighting in Moldova, a small country in southern Ukraine that does not belong to NATO or the European Union. Last week, the pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova experienced a series of explosions. Russia has nearly 1,500 soldiers there. She said she was “concerned” by these “acts of terrorism” and indicated she was monitoring the situation closely, raising fears of a surplus by May 9. If Moldovan President Maïa Sandu wants to be reassured by making sure she does not see an “imminent danger”, she admitted on Wednesday that her government has made “plans to deal with such pessimistic scenarios”.
Scenario 5: Russia is not preparing for anything special
This version is currently the Kremlin version. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu simply referred to the organization of “military parades in 28 Russian cities”. He also said that “about 65,000 people, about 2,400 types of weapons and military equipment and more than 460 aircraft will be mobilized this year.”
Regarding the course of the fighting, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed that the Russian army “will not artificially adjust its actions to any date, including Victory Day.” “The pace of the operation in Ukraine depends, above all, on the need to minimize potential risks to the civilian population and the Russian army,” the Russian foreign minister added in an interview with Italian Media TV broadcast on Sunday. And in conclusion: “We will solemnly celebrate May 9, as we always do. »