Should we be concerned about the dangers of World War III looming over Russia?

“The danger is grave and real and cannot be underestimated.” The Russian Foreign Minister warned of the danger of a third world war, on Monday, April 25, when tensions between Moscow and the West are at their height. Sergey Lavrov spoke on the eve of a meeting of forty countries allied with the United States, organized in Germany, which is aimed at “Generating additional capabilities for the Ukrainian forces”.

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Since the start of the Russian invasion on February 24, Ukrainian forces have been able to resist the attack. But they lack the means to postpone the new phase that is taking place in the Donbass and in the south of the country. During April, the West decided to deliver heavy weapons to Kyiv. Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia sent tanks and anti-missile batteries to their neighbour. The United Kingdom and the Netherlands provided armored vehicles, while the United States pledged $800 million in the list of weapons reverberation. The latest announcement so far, is that of Germany, which on Tuesday pledged to deliver Cheetah anti-aircraft tanks to Kyiv.

However, this increased participation of Westerners on the side of Ukraine is not enough to make them belligerent, according to international law. Selling or giving away weapons is not an act of aggression, So says the jurist Alain Pele, who gave an interview to franceinfo. Europe has the right to take legal countermeasures against those who seriously violate international law [en envahissant un pays voisin]. “

“There are many countries, of course, involved but (…) not directly”Isabelle Davion, a lecturer at the Sorbonne University, confirmed in an interview with Telegram (paid item) Released in early March. According to this international relations specialist, World War is also characterized by “Two alliances” [d’Etats] who are face to face”participate in “fight” Discount “Armed men and women”as such “Many theaters of confrontation spanning several continents”. At this stage, “Fighting is confined to a specific geographic area”, indicates. The United States and its allies have repeatedly said they will not send troops to Ukraine.

Thus, invoking the threat of global conflict is, according to some observers, part of the communication strategy. “We will only talk about a third world war when people agree, personally, that there is a war, Historian Gabriel Rosenfeld says in Washington Post. As long as the conflict is limited to its current characteristics, the way it is described will remain a partisan battle influenced by fear.

How do we explain Sergey Lavrov’s statement about risks? “fact” From World War III? For Isabelle Facon, Deputy Director of the Foundation for Strategic Research, this excursion is “In response to the meeting of forty countries to provide more assistance to Ukraine.”

“Russian rhetoric has become more threatening recently, in the face of arms deliveries to Ukraine. The idea is to warn Westerners not to cross a red line that could make Russia considered ‘warring parties’ in the conflict.”

Isabelle Facon, Deputy Director of the Foundation for Strategic Research

in franceinfo

However, we do not know where this red line is in relation to Moscow, as the specialist in Russian security and defense policy points out. In a sign that Ukraine’s partners do not hesitate to transfer arms, at a time when the Kremlin needs to be able to confirm progress in the Donbass, Russia wants to tacitly warn of the danger of an extension of the Isabel Facon thinks.

Some experts are concerned about the consequences of a possible accident at the border with NATO, for example in Poland or in the Baltic states. Article 5 of the Atlantic Treaty It states that in the event of aggression by a member state, all other states assist it. “lamWorld war is not the goal of Putin, who only wants UkraineTatiana Jan, a specialist in Russia at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), presents in Columns reverberation. But in war conditions, as I said, an accident happened quickly.

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