What does Marine Le Pen’s economic program contain and who will benefit from it?

You assure him: You have changed. Marquée par le débat de l’entre-deux-tours raté de 2017, ou elle était apparue peu sûre de ses calculs, Marine Le Pen a revu sa copie en 2022. Exit la sortie de l’Union européenne ou la retraite à 60 ans For everyone. This time, the National Rally candidate in the presidential election is betting everything on her purchasing power proposals… and on a program she claims is balanced. What is it really? Franceinfo has deciphered its proposals.

>> Presidency 2022: Follow the last days of the campaign in our lives

The principle of economic patriotism

The Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have reminded us that the shortcomings of globalization, with shortages, delays and increasing prices … Therefore, Marine Le Pen proposes to establish “Economic National” And “local” to “Reindustrialization and Wealth Production in France”. In response to a question by franceinfo, his chief of staff, Renault Lapai, acknowledged this“We can’t transfer everything.” It ensures that the focus is on “industry”the products needed to “sovereignty” and sectors High added value. A project very similar to the “France Relance” project created by Emmanuel Macron in 2020. “We cannot deny that wanting to relocate strategic sectors was a good idea”, gets to know Renaud Labaye. However, he considers that the 1 billion euros allocated by the government to encourage resettlement is “Very weak”.

Will the Libyans be moved only within our borders, without regard to our European neighbours? impossible according to to menne-Sophie Alsif, chief economist at BDO France, an economic consultancy. On the one hand, because “France is a very small market, and less attractive to companies than the European Union.” On the other handBecause “Value chains already exist at the European level”with a breakdown of the different stages of production according to the economic efficiency of each country and the skills available there. Production entirely on our territory will generate much higher costs, and therefore a price more important to consumer. “Links with other EU countries will be possible”infuriates the candidate’s advisor RN, who nonetheless considers it in “Breaking the vicious circle of deportations – job losses – reduced purchasing power, the French will find room to buy products whose price will be a little higher”.

The RN candidate also wants to reduce the French contribution to the EU budget by Five billion euros. Problem: Each country’s contribution is determined according to identical rules for seven years. In theory, France is committed until 2027. This will not prevent the candidate, if elected, from starting negotiations before this date, her team asserts. Some countries, such as the United Kingdom or the Netherlands, have already succeeded in obtaining rebates: so the probability of the rebate is judged “quite possible” by some economists, such as Eulalia Rubio, a researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute, at the behest of TF1. On the other hand, it seems to him “impossible” It’s the size that RN hopes. But if France does not pay the full contribution owed, it will face prosecution and penalties, including the termination of generous subsidies to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which greatly benefit French farmers.

>> Presidency: What would the election of Marine Le Pen change internationally

The economic patriotism of Marine Le Pen does not stop there. The far-right candidate wants to establish a “national priority” in accessing public contracts. But this measure violates European competition law, believes the Terra Nova Foundation, which is classified as close to the center-left. This decision will “By raising prices to public authorities first, and then to the taxpayer or user”according to the think tank.

Purchasing Power Measures

Marine Le Pen’s campaign has largely revolved around her promise to return purchasing power to “forgotten” Emmanuel Macron’s five-year term. However, his program multiplies proposals that benefit the portfolio of the richest people, at least as much as those of the working classes.

>> Presidency 2022: We examined the purchasing power proposals of Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen

The candidate therefore promises “Reduce the value-added tax from 20% to 5.5%” on energy products, in particular fuels. that would be equivalent to “to support Affordable families who consume a lot of fuel because they have large vehicles”Matthew Blaine, an economist atFrench Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). Likewise, the 15% reduction in toll rates will benefit all motorists. “lamThe motorway is usually used for long trips (…) and rarely for daily trips from home to work “also refers to Terra Nova.

Unlike many of its competitors who chose to increase Minimum wages to improve the purchasing power of the most vulnerable workers, Marine Le Pen wants to encourage companies to increase their salaries by 10% less than three times the minimum wage (total 4,947 euros, or more than 1,760 euros above the average salary) by exempting this increase from employer contributions. But the Institut Montaigne, a liberal think tank, considers that this exemption will above all create a windfall effect: it will benefit companies that have already planned to raise wages without leading to new increases.

How about removing VAT on a Hundreds of basic necessities (…) As long as inflation is one point higher than growth.”? It could in theory ease the budget of the humblest and the wealthiest alikebut he It is complicated to assess the gains for consumers, because the list of products in question has not been finalized. Marine Le Pen is listed in BFM TV Salt, pepper, oil, pasta, sanitary napkins, diapers. However, most of these items already benefit from a 5.5% VAT. The effectiveness of this procedure will also depend Producer behavior and distributorsWhich could benefit from the abolition of the tax to increase their prices, explains Brice Faber, an economist at the Public Policy Institute. In this case, Marine Le Pen may resort to a price ban, the chief of staff emphasized.

Taxes for the rich

Here again, the financial policy of Marine Le Pen will benefit above all the rich and corporations. The candidate therefore proposes exemption from income tax for all young workers up to the age of 30, so thats “stay in France and found their family here”. In fact, this procedure will concern mainly the most affluent young people. With an average income of €7,490 per year, the vast majority of people between the ages of 18 and 25 are not subject to income tax. For young people aged 26-30, their income (16,220 euros on average) “Exposes them to a very low tax burden in most cases”confirms think tank Terra Nova. “Where the precarious young man earns almost nothing, the young graduate CEO will get a few thousand euros and the country will lose a few billion more.”

Gifts to the wealthy also relate to heritage taxation. Marine Le Pen wants to replace the real estate wealth tax (IFI) with the financial wealth tax, from which the main residence will be exempted. measure it “It will protect the middle classes who sometimes entered the ISF [prédécesseur de l’IFI] Because of the simple appraisal of the family real estate heritage “Reassure the candidate for Parisian. At the moment, the IFI relates to real estate assets of more than 1.3 million euros, from which the existing debt must be deducted in addition to a 30% reduction on the main residence. In other words, a Frenchman whose real estate assets consist of a main residence of 1.7 million euros does not pay tax on the latter.

The candidate also plans to reduce the inheritance tax. a “Textbook Case for Empty Gift”According to Terra Nova. And for good reason: like any reform of inheritance rights, this reform concerns mainly the richest French. 85 to 90% of direct inheritance (from parent to child) is tax deductible.In this regard, the economist Clement Derbacourt explained to France Info.

Funding may be underestimated

After criticizing the feasibility of her economic programme, Marine Le Pen published a costing document detailing how she will balance her budget. But his explanations are far from convincing economists, who for many consider the cost of the planned actions to be significantly underestimated. Accordingly, the Institut Montaigne estimates the volume of spending at 119.6 billion euros, far from expectations of 68.3 billion. Several measures have been identified as “Without financial consequences” It would also have a real cost to the state, according to economists. “It’s not a money bill, it’s an order of magnitude measures”Justifies Cabinet Director Marine Le Pen.

The revenue that would offset the expenses identified by the candidate is also unclear. Hence, the fight against fraud is supposed to generate 15 billion euros. But “The desire to recover the entire amount associated with the fraud is fictitious”remembers Xavier Tempo, Some parameters that are difficult to control (cash payments, overtime, etc.). “We can hope to recover seven billion euros from social fraud, but not before 2027. (…) As for tax evasion, exceeding 5 billion euros seems complicated to me”thought the lobby Agnes Verder Molini at Paris. in the national assembly, Renault Lapay is betting onDedicated Ministry and one ‘political will’ To achieve the target.

Some recipes like expect that “A sharp reduction in migration will make it possible to reduce many expenditures associated with insecurity”estimated at two billion euros, looks even more ambiguous. “It is an estimate of what the crime rate will bring, there will be savings in the budget of translators in the courts or in damages to police cars for example”explains Renaud Lapaye.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published.