4-week trend: weather until May 15

by REGIS CREPET, meteorologist

Like every Thursday, the weather trend is updated for four weeks. It covers the period up to Sunday 15 May and at the same time relates to the rest of the school holidays.

The Easter holiday is the most beautiful of this month of April in our country, and we must take advantage of it, because the turmoil returns quickly from Monday in the West. Thus, the second half of April promises to be again unsettled and refreshing, characterized by frequent periods of rain, showers and thunderstorms. At this time, it is not possible to say exactly where this shower will fall because the weather will be very fickle and volatile. Thus, the weather will not be “mouldy” everywhere or all the time and a nice half day may occur. But do not expect a long stay stable in time. The first ten days of May should also remain unsettled, perhaps with a bit of freshness at the beginning of the month. Only after the tenth day can the weather regain the true and most enduring taste of spring.

Week of April 18 to 24: Unstable and cold weather, many showers

In the second half of April, the weather will become unstable again with the positioning of a cold drop in our country. It will cause frequent rains, stormy at times, and may continue in the south of France, especially in the southeast which needs rain. The flow will gradually shift to the northeastern sector in the second half of the week, with fresh air and more instability in the south of France than in the north. Temperatures again dropped below seasonal averages. In this regard, it seems that the unusual formation of the weather for this April continues, as anticyclones fall in the direction of Scandinavia and the depressions spread from the Iberian Peninsula to North Africa.

Week from April 25 to May 1: Temporarily unstable and windy

By the end of the month, depressions could continue off Portugal, alternating on their own without succeeding in overrunning France. In this type of formation, an exact prediction is not possible because the type of weather induced is very variable from day to day. We can say that temperatures will be volatile, possibly rising with the help of southerly winds, and that instability will be synonymous with frequent stormy showers. These occur in a sporadic manner and can allow for short periods of improvement.

Week 2 to 8 May: Temporary breath of fresh air?

Still in a meteorological formation characterized by the presence of cold drops over Western Europe, forecasts remain difficult at this time. Depending on the circulation of these cold drops, i.e. the depressions around which the wind blows, temperature fluctuations are likely to be frequent and a cold snap may affect France in early May. Then there appears to be a more classic weather scenario, with a southwesterly flow leading to an improvement in our southern regions, with the equinox returning.

The week of May 9-15: Still a little uneasy before an improvement

So far, we don’t see a permanent return of the anticyclone over France in the first half of May, but it looks like the weather will become less deteriorating again as it advances into mid-May. The turmoil can still bring choppy and sometimes rainy weather to the northern half, but the south should return to more seasonal weather, i.e. sunny and temperate.

FinallyWe should not expect to install permanent beautiful days for the second half of April. Rain and showers will return, though not everywhere, while temperatures will drop. In all, we can have April with fairly seasonal average temperatures, resulting in high precipitation, except for a few areas that still have very little precipitation (Central East and PACA). In the meantime, May may turn out to be record-breaking, and therefore less turbulent than April, which would be more discretionary.

Next update, Thursday, April 21 at 5 p.m.

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